Iran’s Solution to Sanctions: America’s Backyard

January 3, 2012 in Latin America, The World Today

Vahid Salemi/AP

By Andrew Melton

Ask someone about Iran right now, and you will most likely hear a response related to the Strait of Hormuz or its nuclear program. Many Americans see the Iranian threat as one confined to the Middle East. They hope to neutralize it with increasingly restrictive sanctions meant to further isolate Iran. However, instead of penning in Iran, these sanctions have forced the Persians to search for new trading partners. Tehran hopes that they have found these new partners in Latin America. Iran has increased its diplomatic and military presence in the region with some countries responding more favorably than others.

Venezuela is Iran’s biggest ally in the region. The two nations have often been the target of Western criticism, naturally bringing them together. The trading partnership between the two is strong and likely to continue. Iran’s focus is on countries maybe not as controversial as Venezuela, but that have had problems with the West. This month President Ahmadinejad will visit Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba, and Nicaragua. The latter three have relatively uncertain economic futures with the United States.

The United States, however, should not worry too much about the economic implications of Iran’s interest in Latin America. Whether it is fair or not, Iran is somewhat of a toxic commodity on the international stage. Most countries are not going to pick a side in this fight, and if they were to, I would not expect it to be Iran’s. What are worrisome are the security implications of Iran’s military expansion. Members of the elite Quds Force, a special branch of the Iranian military, are being stationed at embassies in Latin America.

Many fear that this build up signifies Iran’s commitment to violent retaliation in response to sanctions. Such was the case in October when the United States government foiled an assassination plot in Washington DC with suspected connections to the Quds Force and Mexican nationals. The bold and reckless nature of the October plot that easily could have started a war is cause for alarm. If Tehran was willing to risk war months ago, what will they be willing to do in the future in response to more restrictive sanctions?

Perhaps it means Iran is in a state of desperation trying to find an answer for Western sanctions, or maybe Tehran is simply trying to find another way of annoying the United States. I think 2012 will show the former to be true. When you look at Tehran’s increased involvement in Latin America in the context of the extreme rhetoric revolving around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran looks more and more like a nation running out of options. Whether Latin America is the answer, 2012 can only tell.

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

A Small Island in the South Atlantic

December 20, 2011 in Latin America, The World Today

British troops marching in the Falklands.

 By: Andrew Melton

It has been nearly thirty years since the war in the Malvinas, more commonly known by its English name, the Falklands. Though the bullets and missiles have stopped flying, the tension between Argentina and the United Kingdom remains high. Two major events occurred just in the past week. The first émigré from the Falkland Islands since the 1982 war obtained Argentine citizenship last week. On the 16th, Uruguay closed all ports to Falkland flagged ships causing an outcry from the British. These recent events point toward a growingly hostile turn in one of South America’s fiercest territorial disputes.

The Falkland Islands are somewhat of an anomaly. During Britain’s heyday as the world’s top naval power, English explorers came across an archipelago in the South Atlantic between the Americas and Antarctica. Though those days are long gone, the Falkland Islands remain as a relic of Britain’s colonial past. In 1982 Argentina felt compelled to relinquish Britain of the scarcely populated islands just off the South American coast. The result was one of the most pointless wars of the 20th century. Hundreds of British and Argentine soldiers died in a war that resulted with the islands remaining in British control. It was a huge defeat for Argentine nationalism and a giant boost for Margaret Thatcher’s spiraling government.

Relations have obviously cooled since the violent summer of 1982, but that does not mean Argentina is any less bitter. It is illegal to fly commercially from Argentina to the islands, with the only flight being a weekly fighter jet fly over to remind the inhabitants who lives across the water. The islander émigré was largely a symbolic blow, however Uruguay’s decision to close its ports is much more tangible. Uruguay usually practices a much more agreeable foreign policy based in peace, however this change may point towards a more unified Atlantic coast.  

It is difficult to pick a side in the conflict. Argentina has some claim to the territory considering its proximity. However, generations of Falkland islanders have grown up as citizens of the United Kingdom, and that British identity is firmly engrained in the islands’ population. Many of us outside the conflict wonder why these two nations continue to fight over islands in which sheep outnumber people. Recent reports say the Falklands sit atop a large reservoir of oil, meaning the dispute is more economically driven than nationalistic. I doubt the world will see another rendition of the 1982 war, however the increase in diplomatic hostilities is certainly cause for alarm.

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

General Noriega’s Final Act

December 13, 2011 in Latin America, The World Today

Associated Press

 By Andrew Melton

On Sunday night, the infamous General Manuel Antonio Noriega touched down in Panama City after nearly twenty-one years abroad. He is fresh off serving prison sentences in the United States and France. He was allowed to return to his home country as a result of an extradition deal requiring the former dictator, now 77 years old, to serve a twenty-year prison sentence. Whether the Panamanian public will react favorably, negatively, or not even react at all is yet to be seen. The one thing that is known is that a dictator has returned home, and this time the circumstances are different.

General Manuel Noriega is the poster child for corrupt Latin American dictators supported by a complacent Central Intelligence Agency in the name of fighting communism. Noriega was a career military officer who climbed the ranks in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. During this time he worked closely with the CIA helping the agency with its anti-communism efforts in the region. At the same time, Noriega did business with the infamous Medellin Cartel led by Pablo Escobar in Colombia. It was in the wake of the Iran-Contra affair that relations between Noriega and the United States began to sour. Reagan was under pressure to clean up his act in Latin America, but the general was not interested in obliging the president.

Following the start of the United States’ war on drugs, the US military invaded Panama in 1989 for the purpose of capturing Noriega and returning him to the US for trial. He was indeed captured, taken to the US, tried, and in 1991 sentenced to years in prison. During the past twenty years, Noriega spent seventeen in an American prison and three in a French prison (money laundering). And now, at age 77, he is most likely looking at spending the rest of his life in a Panamanian prison. Due to Panamanian law regarding prisoners above the age of 70, some are worried Noriega may spend the rest of his days at home with his family under house arrest. I doubt the current opposition government will allow that to happen, though.

This is just another chapter in America’s relationship with Latin American dictators. However, it may very well be the final chapter. Latin America is largely dominated by democracies now, barring the US from working with the corrupt, larger than life personalities of old. However, even if they were to exist in the modern day, I do not believe the US would engage in such acts. The US may have questionable economic policies in the region, but do not expect the CIA to reenact its dance with another Noriega. The Cold War provided it the entire fix it needed in that theater. Gone are the days when US presidents, such as FDR, could say things like, “[He] may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

The United States Owes Chile Justice

December 6, 2011 in Latin America, The World Today

The four members of the military junta only a week after the coup.

By Andrew Melton

The history shared by the United States and Latin America is complicated to say the least. Whether it was the Banana Wars of the turn of the century or the CIA’s interventions during the Cold War, the United States has meddled in Latin American affairs countless times. Such was the case in 1973 when the CIA aided Augusto Pinochet to overthrow the democratically elected socialist, Salvador Allende. Though Pinochet is dead and the coup occurred nearly four decades ago, the effects continue to resound today. Last week a Chilean judge requested the indictment and extradition of US Navy Captain Ray E. Davis for crimes committed during the coup.

Davis is accused of aiding Chilean security forces in the murder of two Americans, Charles Horman and Frank Teruggi. Horman was a journalist investigating whether the United States was involved in Pinochet’s coup, an accusation vehemently denied at the time. Teruggi was a student involved with several leftist organizations connected to “subversive” acts. Both men were detained by Chilean security forces, interrogated, and eventually executed, with their bodies being dumped in the streets of Santiago. The accusations against Davis range from knowledge and indifference regarding the murders to actively providing the information that led to their deaths. Regardless of the severity of the accusations, most can agree that Captain Davis was involved in some sort of wrongdoing.

The idea of Captain Davis finally facing trial sounds great. Here is a chance to provide closure and justice for those affected by an awful crime. However, the case is a little more complicated than it appears. Davis’s wife told the Associated Press that her husband has Alzheimer’s and is currently living in a nursing home. How far do we go in pursuing justice, and at what point does that pursuit prove excessive? If what Davis’s wife says is true, he will almost certainly be considered unfit to stand trial. If she is lying, however, one can only hope Captain Davis will finally enter the judicial process.

Even if Captain Davis is fit to stand trial, the United States most likely will not comply with the extradition request. It does not exactly look good when a high-ranking Naval officer is on trial in a foreign country for the murders of US citizens. We can only hope that in place of extradition, the United States will try him domestically for his crimes. This is a good opportunity for the United States to make amends with the Chilean people for its involvement in Pinochet’s coup.

The situation surrounding Captain Davis represents a larger issue regarding relations between the United States and Latin America. We have done some awful things in the past 150 years to many Latin American countries. Much of what we did had lasting affects still seen today. In a larger sense, this situation symbolizes the problem of knowing which acts we must atone for and which we can bury with history.  

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

Cuba and the End of the Communist Experiment

November 29, 2011 in Latin America, The World Today

Guevara, Castro, and Cienfuegos

By Andrew Melton

Cuba is no longer the communist country led by the larger-than-life figures pictured above. While eye-catching revolutions and protests occur around the world, a silent, yet monumental change is taking place in Cuba. Raul Castro, the current president of Cuba, has slowly been implementing reforms over the past year in hopes of revamping the economy. These reforms are meant to create private enterprise through the relaxing of government restrictions. Over 180,000 “self-employment” licenses have been granted in the last year, and just this month the ownership of certain kinds of private property was legalized. The latter reform, in my opinion, is by far the more noteworthy. For the first time in half a century Cubans can buy and sell their homes and those famous classic cars we Americans know and love.

These reforms were passed way back in April by the Sixth Communist Party Congress and are finally being implemented. December will be a great month to watch what is coming out of Havana. On December 1st farmers will be able to sell their products directly to businesses of the tourist industry. This will mark a major step away from an unnecessary bureaucratic system filled with middlemen.

Just three weeks later, another important breakthrough will take place. On December 20th the Cuban government, via its national bank, will offer loans to those categorized as “self-employed.” This is huge because the vast majority of those that belong to this group operates small businesses and complains about the inability to expand their enterprise. This new credit system could possibly provide the capital necessary to transform Cuba’s private sector from a collection of small businesses to a significant actor in the economy.

Cuba is a fascinating place. The Cuban Revolution of 1959 was by far the most successful communist revolution to take place in Latin America. That being said, Cuba needs these reforms. It needs them bad. The communist economic model has been implemented in multiple countries, but it has never found a way to succeed. Like most things in life, a good economic system requires balance: that means policies from both ends of the ideological spectrum. These reforms are pulling Cuba to a more centralized ideological location.

I have always dreamed of going to Cuba. The story surrounding the Cuban Revolution is controversial, but captivating. I’m no communist, but I do admire what Fidel Castro, Che Guevara, Camilo Cienfuegos, and all the members of the July 26 Movement were able to accomplish. The communist experiment was interesting, however the liberalization of the Cuban economy was much overdue. The speed and caliber of the reforms are reassuring and give me an optimistic view on Cuba’s future. Hopefully these changes mean an end to Cuba’s role as a relic of the Cold War and bring about a Cuba more adapted for the contemporary global landscape. Plus it would be great to finally be allowed to fly to Havana.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

The FARC’s Head is Gone, but the Body Remains

November 14, 2011 in Latin America, The World Today

Scott Dalton/AP

By Andrew Melton

On November 4th, Colombian security forces killed Guillermo León Saenz, more commonly known as Alfonso Cano. Cano was the acting head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a position he inherited following the natural death of Manuel Marulanda in 2008. The Colombian government cites Cano’s death as a momentous event in the fight against the FARC. President Juan Manuel Santos proudly exclaimed, “The FARC had reached breaking point…the leadership will come down like a house of cards.” This is most likely wishful rhetoric, but it does represent a setback for the militant group.

The FARC is a Marxist militant group primarily active in the rural areas of Colombia. The group was founded in the 1960s in response to the conservative government’s violent push to take control of areas under communist control. However, it was not until the 1980’s that the organization gained momentum and transformed into the militant group we see today. The past thirty years have largely been characterized by fighting between the FARC and the government, with stints of negotiations between the two actors. The Council on Foreign Relations does a good job in summarizing the actions of FARC.

The problem with this conflict is that it is not confined to just the FARC and government. The FARC has employed questionable tactics in raising money to support their insurgency. The group does not engage in the trafficking of drugs directly, but it does work with the traffickers in providing fee-based protection. The group also engages in kidnappings and assassinations that have affected countless innocent people. Right-wing paramilitary groups have spawned in response to the FARC and other left-wing movements. These paramilitary groups have committed hundreds of atrocities involving rape and murder and are arguably much more brutal than the FARC.

Whether it be on the right or the left, movements constantly compromise their values in the name of promoting their ideology. In regards to the death of Cano, it is somewhat bitter sweet. The man was an intellectual with just intentions, but the FARC’s actions betray those intentions. The FARC claims to represent the rural poor in a struggle with Colombia’s wealthier classes. However, does that representation merit kidnappings, working with drug traffickers, and sometimes murdering innocent people? There is no doubt that the FARC is correct in accusing the government, and especially the military, of corruption and excessive violence, but does that justify equally abhorrent actions? Engaging in such actions has almost turned the FARC into that which it was created to fight.

These movements must be peaceful in nature, or else they will never garner the popular support they seek. The Colombian government must rein in its military and paramilitary groups if it hopes to legitimately bring the FARC to the negotiating table. The truth is, the Colombian government holds the power in this conflict, and if they indeed want a peaceful settlement, they must be the first to extend the olive branch. Obviously this is much easier said than done, but no one ever said seeking peace was easy.

Do not expect Cano’s death to be the destruction of the FARC, at least not in the near future. Cano may have been the leader of the organization, but due to an incessant pursuit by the Colombian military he was forced to abandon much of his day-to-day command. The FARC may have lost its ideological and strategic mastermind, but this should not affect the infrastructure of the organization. Expect some infighting amongst the Secretariat regarding succession, but do not be surprised to see the FARC eventually settle on a new commander and continue its armed fight against the Colombian government. We can only hope that President Santos and the FARC’s future leader will find a way to finally end this conflict in a peaceful way.

 

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.

Islamabad and Washington on Shaky Ground

November 8, 2011 in Middle East, The World Today

Photographer: MASSOUD HOSSAINI Copyright/Source: AFP/Getty Images

By Andrew Melton

Afghanistan’s dangerously porous border with Pakistan continues to strain the relationship between Washington and Islamabad. The United States believes the majority of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan operate out of Pakistan’s lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in the Northwest of the country. In addition, the United States has accused the Pakistani military and intelligence service, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), of not pursuing the Pakistani Taliban diligently enough and sometimes even aiding them. The most recent example of this came on September 13th in Kabul, Afghanistan. Fighters from the Haqqani network, a branch of the Pakistani Taliban, launched an attack on the US embassy in Kabul resulting in dozens of casualties, including multiple fatalities. Days later, Admiral Mike Mullen publicly accused Pakistan’s ISI of supporting the Haqqani network and the attack. The Pakistani government vehemently denied the accusation, and the relationship between the two nations remains tense.

Both actors, the United States and Pakistan, have much at stake going forward. Pakistan receives billions of dollars in aid for defense from the United States. The United States depends on Pakistan to help pursue the Taliban and pacify Afghanistan. The United States’ primary goal is for the ISI to cut all ties to the Pakistani Taliban and intensify their pursuit of these militant groups. Pakistan’s primary goal is to maintain the status quo of pursuing the Pakistani Taliban enough as to insure the continual flow of aid from the United States while preserving acceptable relations with the same militant groups. The status quo, however, is unsustainable.

The United States’ policy on this issue going forward began with an ultimatum for Pakistan: cease all support for the Pakistani Taliban, or the United States will take unilateral action in pursuing militants into the FATA. Pakistan has very little wiggle room. On one hand the government feels they must maintain connections with the Pakistani Taliban in order to include them in Pakistani society after the United States leaves Afghanistan. On the other hand, a lack of compliance could jeopardize the billions of dollars in defense aid Pakistan receives from the United States. The United States already withheld aid once early this year. Furthermore, as was the case with the raid to kill Osama bin Laden, unilateral intrusions by the United States are deeply unpopular amongst the Pakistani population. The civilian population sees it as a blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. The government can ill afford more civilian dissent.

The United States is most likely to follow through with its ultimatum, as it was announced publicly and not through private channels. There are tradeoffs associated with both of Pakistan’s possible choices, some more severe than others. Recognizing the amount Pakistan relies on the United States’ aid and how little it can afford unilateral action by the United States, Pakistan has little choice. The government and ISI must begin cutting ties with the Pakistani Taliban in the FATA and increase military action against these militant groups. The benefits of maintaining a relationship no longer outweigh the costs.

Thanks for installing the Bottom of every post plugin by Corey Salzano. Contact me if you need custom WordPress plugins or website design.