North Korea | Arizona MUNdi

Preparedness Level: Kim Jong-un

March 18, 2013 in Asia, The World Today, United States

AP Photo/The Santa Maria Times, Daniel Dreifuss

By Stewart Benson

In response to Pyongyang’s recent daring threats against South Korea and the United States, recently appointed Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced a $1 billion deployment of ballistic missile interceptors along the Western coast of the United States. The deployment is a clear indication that North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, is becoming increasingly unstable and without China’s normal restraint. After China helped draft a Security Council resolution enacting even tougher sanctions on the already impoverished country, the relationship between the two can only be described as severely frayed. The number of interceptors in Alaska and California will increase from thirty installations to forty four, and will be completed by 2017.

Senior Obama Administration officials have acknowledged that part of the reason of deployment has been the severity of the North’s threats, but also because China seems to be losing control of its once strong ally. In the past, any provocations of the North would be handled accordingly by leadership in Beijing, making sure things did not become out of hand. After the Security Council resolution was approved, and general discontent among the Chinese towards their North Korean neighbors has become vocalized, the increasing isolation has led to the present case of belligerence.

The installations have been called as a reminder to the world that the United States will stand firm against aggressors towards the homeland and their allies. The threats of North Korea breaking a long-standing cease-fire with South Korea and of a pre emptive nuclear strike has propelled the U.S. to develop a ‘two-tiered’ response to any North Korea threat. Admiral James Winnefeld Jr., the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has described this system as one where the U.S. has the deterrence capability for any North Korean strike, but if they do commit a strike, then serious costs will be put upon them. While worded in generalized terms, this warning suggests that North Korea would be sufficiently disabled from performing any military action in a time of war with the United States.

The antimissile systems will also serve other purposes. The Senate Armed Services Committee has stated that they will also be needed to not only successfully deter North Korea, but also the growing threat of Iran’s nuclear program. However, the reliability of these interceptors has been in question. Administration officials and members of Congress are wary of pouring additional funds into these programs, which have only proven a success rate of around fifty percent. The Pentagon has stated that the new antimissile systems will have to prove reliability before they are deployed. They will stick with their ‘fly before we buy’ approach and cited a successful launch in late January. However, Congress is adamant that the systems need to be successful in order to avoid wasting taxpayer money.

In addition to the interceptors being deployed in the U.S., Patriot Missile batteries will be installed in South Korea and U.S. warships with ballistic defense capabilities will be stationed off the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. is also working closely with Japan in deploying missile-defense radar in the region. While it is hopeful that the recent North Korean provocations will be unfulfilled, the threats have clearly struck a nerve with the U.S. and its allies, the most severe in recent memory.

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Tags: Ballisitic Missile, Chuck Hagel, Interceptor, Iran, Japan, Kim Jong-un, North Korea, Nuclear, Obama, Patriot Missile, Pre emptive, South Korea, Strike, United States
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A Very Angry North

February 4, 2013 in Asia, The World Today, United States

Ed Jones – AFP/Getty Images

By Stewart Benson

In a recent rush of threats and warnings, North Korea, under leadership of Kim Jong-un, is accelerating its nuclear enrichment and missile weapons programs, specifically targeting both the United States and its neighbor, South Korea. Seen as a response to recently approved international sanctions drafted by the United Nations, North Korea now has a mission statement for its ballistic missile program: a nuclear test of higher level will target the United States, the “sworn enemy” of the Korean people. While American intelligence agencies are skeptical of how capable North Korea is of delivering a nuclear payload to the United States, recent missile tests by the isolated country indicates their missile technology has come a long way in recent months. The recent test of a satellite launch proved that North Korea has the ability to send missiles thousands of miles, possibly even reaching Hawaii. However, a strike towards the Continental U.S. is said to be still three to four years away. The North’s specific warnings against the U.S. also mentioned a plan for a third underground nuclear test. While in direct violation of the United Nation’s Security Council resolution, the test would be the first under North Korea’s new leader and a chance for the Obama administration to see how sophisticated their nuclear program has become.

At a time of immense insecurity in the region, these new threats by North Korea might be an indicator of the United State’s recent focus only on Iran’s nuclear program, a situation where the U.S. may have lost some diplomatic leverage. Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu butting heads several months ago, along with construction of new nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, placed American intelligence analysts solely focused on Iran. The past several years also saw nuclear talks with the North go sour, giving North Korea the opportunity to go ahead with the tests without much trouble. Perhaps adding to the acceleration of their tests, China has seemingly left North Korea alone, approving the Security Council’s resolution condemning the North’s satellite launch. However, China still maintains economic and diplomatic ties with the North, and has stated that instability within North Korea is more of a threat than further nuclear and missile testing.

Recently sworn in Secretary of State John Kerry has the opportunity to approach North Korea with perhaps more focus and energy than recently departed Secretary Hillary Clinton. There is little doubt that U.S. foreign policy will take more direct action against North Korea; the severity and specificity of the new threats are a real cause for concern. It should be interesting to see how diplomatic policy with the North will change under Kerry, and if China will become more involved with the sophistication of North Korea’s weapons programs is substantial. With Israel recently targeting a Syrian chemical weapons depot, it might be possible that the U.S. and its allies could target North Korean facilities. How China will react to direct strikes will most likely be negative, but that is a reality that could take place if international sanctions continue to fail.

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Tags: Ballistic MIssiles, Enrichment, Iran, John Kerry, Kim Jong-un, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Obama, Uranium
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Good News and Bad News

April 1, 2012 in Asia

by Hugo Polanco

North Korea has returned in full form after a brief hiatus following Kim Jong-il’s death, when the region collectively held its breath hoping that the new leader would bring reform and moderation. Their latest act is a plan to launch a missile over Japan under a claim that it is a satellite launch. Japan has not taken kindly to this news and has announced that be it a missile or genuine satellite launch, it will be shot down if passes over Japan. This is erratic North Korean policy at its finest given that the new leader had reached an accommodation with the west. He had restarted talks and in return for ceasing uranium enrichment and long range ballistic missile development, North Korea would receive much needed aid. This is perfectly in line with established North Korean strategy of making deals then increasing tensions through crisis in order to move for a better deal. Towards the end of Kim Jong-il’s rule this strategy failed to pay off because both South Korea and the United States began taking a harder line against North Korean provocations while being distrustful of any overtures for deals or talks. This transfer period was an excellent opportunity for North Korea to reverse its policies for the betterment of the region and its own suffering population. So while not surprising, this missile launch is disheartening.

On the other side of Asia, Myanmar has passed milestone one that has been greeted with adulation and joy. The election in Myanmar have passed and Aung San Suu Kyi has won a seat in the parliament. These election were a powerful symbol and a marker of how far Myanmar has gone in the past few years. Myanmar is still not free, Suu Kyi’s party could not have win a majority because only a small percentage of the parliamentary seats were contested and there was also accusations of irregularities. Each step that the government takes towards democracy is a sign, it makes rolling back all the reforms less likely for one. This step will also increase the likelihood that the European Union and the United States will roll back sanctions. With that Myanmar may finally achieve its full potential, there is already speculation that its position astride India and China, and its rich mineral resources will quickly transform it into a new economic powerhouse.

The contrast between the two countries is shocking. One is on its way up and the other still mired in oppression. Two years ago both these countries were considered absolute basket cases and often muttered in the same breath when listing corrupt regimes. So this week I’m left with hope and praise for the successes of Aung San Suu Kyi’s decades long struggle for the freedom of her people, while lamenting the failure of the corpulent Kim Jong-un and the North Korean regime to advance beyond the failed policies of his father.

This post reflects the author’s personal opinions, not the opinions of Arizona Model United Nations.

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Tags: Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma, Elections, Myanmar, North Korea, Suu Kyi, the lady
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The Ever Lonely Kim Jong-il

January 8, 2012 in Asia

By Hugo Polanco

Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader for 17 years died last December. He was an absurd leader of the most reclusive country on Earth. He ruled as a god in North Korea and his every whim was satisfied at a moment’s notice. Beyond being a laughing stock of the international community Kim Jong-il was a dangerous man. His regime’s domestic irresponsibility lead to the deaths of millions of North Koreans during the famines the country faced in the 90’s. Abroad his regime routinely ratcheted up tension with North Korea’s neighbors and the United States to extort aid from them. No one should mourn for his death for he was a cruel vicious leader but as a final joke his death has only bought more uncertainty to North Korea and East Asia. Kim Jong-il and his father before him organized the North Korean state solely to serve the supreme leader. The death of the leader leaves North Korea dangerously close to disintegration. The previous succession occurred with the death of Kim Il-song, the founder of the North Korean state. At the time of his father’s death Kim Jong-il had already passed through decades of grooming to prepare him for the role and used two notorious terror attacks on South Korea to solidify his credentials of leadership. With such a legacy the world is looking nervously on this new succession period. The designated heir is Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il’s third son. Kim Jong-un was barely designated as heir in 2010 and still in his 20’s. He could easily choose to repeat his father’s method of solidifying control of the country or finally bringing long needed reform to North Korea.

Despite acting recklessly and constantly endangering war across the region, a North Korean collapse is looked upon with dread by neighboring countries. China would lose its valuable buffer that separates it from American friendly South Korea and the 28 thousand American troops stationed there while South Korea would have to bear the considerable costs of rapid reunification. Refugees would likely surge into both these countries and Russia creating a humanitarian crisis. At the moment the succession process appears to be flowing smoothly. Kim Jong-un has been steadily assuming all the positions previously held by his father and grandfather. The latest position he has assumed is Supreme Commander of the military.

The North Korean government has publicly announced that they will continue on with all their previous policies, a ploy to show continuation of authority between Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un. The South Korean government initially responded to Kim Jong-il’s death by heightening military readiness, now that the succession appears to progressing without any incidents the South Korean government is attempting to reengage with North with a combination of diplomatic feelers and the promise of aid to its starving citizens. South Korea surely hopes that the death of the dear leader will finally lead to a change in inter-Korean relations and will be using its diplomatic and economic resources to influence the North in this direction. North Korea is still a crazy unpredictable place. Kim Jong-un could easily hold power and continue to rule much as his father and grandfather did, or he could finally bring reform. Also possible are desperate attacks on the South, or chaos and implosion in the North. So as the year starts there are many reasons to continue watching the lonely kingdom of the Kim family